As we kick off 2026, many of us in the Nanaimo real estate community are asking the same question: what does this year look like for our local housing market?
After a dynamic few years shaped by shifting interest rates, evolving buyer behaviour, and fluctuating inventory levels, the heightened emotions surrounding 2025 politics and economic uncertainty have begun to settle. What I am seeing now, both professionally and personally, is a market that feels more balanced, more thoughtful, and far less reactive.
In this post, I’ll walk you through what’s changed, what hasn’t, and the practical implications for buyers and sellers in Nanaimo and Central Vancouver Island as we move through 2026.
Mortgage Rates and the Borrowing Environment in 2026
One of the biggest conversations heading into 2026 continues to be interest rates, especially after years of aggressive increases. I’ve heard a resounding sigh of relief from clients, friends, and colleagues as the Bank of Canada and institutional lenders have finally pumped the brakes.
As of the most recent mortgage rate comparisons in British Columbia, conventional five-year fixed mortgage rates are sitting in the low-to-mid 3% range, with the lowest rates roughly 3.65%–3.89%, depending on lender and borrower qualifications. Variable mortgage options are often slightly lower, hovering around 3.4%–3.9%, according to WOWA’s financial data.
On the policy side, the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate has been reduced and held at 2.25%, a move aimed at improving affordability and encouraging market participation.
From what I’m seeing on the ground, this stabilization has meaningfully improved overall morale for both buyers and sellers. Many people who paused their plans in 2025 are now revisiting their goals in 2026. I’m seeing this directly in my business, and I’m hearing similar feedback from colleagues across the region.
After the economic and political volatility of the past year, I truly believe we all needed to see some steadiness return to the financial landscape. While I don’t foresee dramatic price increases or steep declines, 2026 is shaping up to be a more measured, steady year, with fewer emotional swings and more deliberate decision-making.
What This Means for Buyers
While rates are higher than the ultra-low pandemic years, they are now stable enough to allow buyers to plan, budget, and move forward with confidence. Those pandemic rates were never sustainable, and while many people miss them, they also came with inflated prices and intense competition.
Today, we are seeing softened prices across many housing segments, and in my opinion, the combination of moderated pricing and stabilized interest rates can present strong long-term opportunities when approached carefully and thoughtfully. This year may bring opportunities for buyers, which in turn creates healthy momentum for sellers.
Let’s go.
What’s Changed in Nanaimo Real Estate Since Last Year
1. Buyer Behaviour Has Shifted
Buyers are no longer reacting to every headline or rate announcement. Instead, they are:
Comparing properties more thoroughly
Taking their time
Writing conditional offers with appropriate timelines
Balancing monthly costs with lifestyle preferences
Purchasing within their comfort zone rather than overextending themselves
This shift has created a calmer, more methodical market where fit matters just as much as timing. The over-the-top urgency we experienced in recent years is behind us, and frankly, that’s a good thing.
As an agent, I want this environment for both my buyers and sellers. There is nothing worse than being rushed through due diligence. A less pressured market allows everyone involved to ensure the transaction is done properly, which ultimately reduces the risk of collapsed deals. That benefit goes both ways.
I completed several intricate and complex transactions in 2025, and deals with many moving parts require time, attention, and cooperation from all parties.
2. Inventory Has Become More Balanced
After extended periods of tight supply earlier in the decade, Nanaimo’s housing market has reached a more balanced level of available listings. Buyers have more choice, and the playing field feels more even.
As we approach the spring market, I’m optimistic about seeing an influx of strong listings, which will further support healthy market activity.
3. Average Prices Are Holding or Moderating
Spring through fall of 2025 felt reactive, with pricing and sentiment shifting quickly in response to headlines and economic signals. Since fall, and now into early 2026, the market has remained relatively steady, knock on wood.
Benchmark data (while not the full picture) shows the average Nanaimo single-family home price decreasing from $810,800 to $801,900 in 2025. This reflects a market that is neither in free fall nor in bubble territory, but instead operating at sustainable levels tied to local demand and economic fundamentals.
What Has Stayed the Same in Nanaimo Real Estate
1. Nanaimo Continues to Attract Lifestyle-Driven Buyers
Nanaimo’s combination of outdoor access, growing amenities, relative affordability compared to the Lower Mainland, and strong community appeal continues to draw a diverse mix of buyers.
I lovingly refer to Vancouver Island as California, Canada in the summertime. We are a world-renowned vacation destination and a long-term home for those seeking a slower-paced, outdoor-focused lifestyle.
Those of us lucky enough to live here know just how special this place is. Central Vancouver Island, in particular, continues to offer lower housing costs than Vancouver or Victoria, while still providing access to stunning beaches, trails, and year-round recreation. People will continue to choose this region for years to come.
2. Neighbourhood Variation Still Matters
Just as before, Nanaimo is not one market, it’s many. North Nanaimo, South Nanaimo, the Old City, Central Nanaimo, Cedar, Lantzville, and surrounding rural pockets all behave differently.
Price sensitivity, inventory levels, ease of sale, and buyer priorities vary significantly by neighbourhood. One of Nanaimo’s strengths is that it offers a range of price points and communities to suit many different lifestyles.
3. Presentation and Strategy Still Win Deals
Homes that are:
Well-priced
Professionally photographed
Staged for showing, be that clean and clear of clutter & personal items or staged either virtually or physically
…Continue to outperform others. Buyers still respond strongly to thoughtful presentation and clear value.
Local Nanaimo Market Trends to Watch
Here’s what we’re seeing locally:
Sales volume has been increasing year-over-year in some reports, even amid broader provincial shifts. That said, 2026 remains to be seen.
Mill closures have impacted local families, and my hope is that we don’t see long-term residents pushed out due to lack of meaningful work. As a long-term Vancouver Island resident, I remain optimistic.
Inventory levels are holding at balanced levels, giving buyers choice without creating an oversupply.
Affordability remains a challenge for many local families, though Central Vancouver Island continues to sit below Vancouver and Victoria in overall housing costs.
For the purposes of this blog, I’m focusing on home sales rather than rental rates, though the two are certainly connected. Construction costs remain a topic of conversation, and while some builder-buyer mismatches have made headlines elsewhere, this has been less pronounced locally, certainly North of Victoria.
What This Means for Buyers in 2026
If you’re considering buying this year:
Mortgage planning is essential. Take time to understand fixed versus variable options and plan for potential fluctuations.
Conditional offers are normal and provide important protection while you complete inspections and financing.
Local expertise matters more than ever. Market nuances can vary dramatically even within short driving distances.
You want an agent with on-the-ground knowledge, access to local municipalities, and relationships with trusted inspectors and service providers. Someone who is actively working in the market, walking properties, and understanding neighbourhood-specific details can make all the difference.
What This Means for Sellers in 2026
If you’re thinking about selling:
Pricing Strategy Is Critical
Overpricing leads to stagnation, while realistic pricing drives activity. Many sellers chased a falling market in 2025 by pricing too high initially. This year, competitive pricing and a solid plan matter more than ever. Trust your agent’s market data. The goal is always to achieve the highest price possible, with the least stress and disruption.
Marketing Execution Still Differentiates
Professional visuals, targeted exposure, and a clear marketing plan create momentum. Timing matters. Strategy matters. Exposure matters.
Presentation Moves Buyers Emotionally
Declutter, depersonalize, and create space. Buyers need to visualize themselves in the home. Small steps make a big difference.
Property Preparation Builds Confidence
Fix what’s broken. Tidy the yard. Remove unfinished project materials. Service mechanical systems. Provide maintenance records. Information is king.
Buyers may not think they care about maintenance history, but they absolutely do. Confidence leads to stronger offers.
There are exceptions to every rule, and sometimes preparation isn’t feasible. That’s okay. A good agent will help you navigate those situations and advise on the best path forward.
Looking Ahead with Confidence in 2026
2026 isn’t about dramatic swings. It’s about calibrated growth, stability, and thoughtful participation. Prepared buyers and strategic sellers both have opportunities, and decisions rooted in local insight will outperform reactionary moves every time.
Slow and steady wins the race this year. Preparation and planning will be the winning mix.
If you’re planning a move in 2026, whether buying or selling, I’m here to help you interpret the data, understand your options, and move forward with clarity and confidence rooted in real, local experience.
-Simone Bezeau
